Why Indian Share Market Is Going Down | Monday Market Prediction
The Indian stock market witnessed intense selling pressure on Thursday, triggering widespread panic among retail and institutional investors alike. Benchmark indices Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex ended sharply lower, extending losses for the fifth consecutive session and raising a pressing question across Dalal Street:
👉 Why Indian share market is going down so sharply in January 2026?
This in-depth report explains all major reasons behind the crash, sector-wise damage, global cues, technical breakdowns, and finally presents a clear Monday market prediction based on expert insights and chart structures.
📉 Market at a Glance: Thursday Crash Snapshot
| Index | Day’s Low | Closing Level | Points Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 25,884 | 25,876 | -263 |
| Sensex | — | 84,180 | -780 |
| Bank Nifty | — | 59,686 | -304 |
| Midcap Index | — | — | -1.99% |
| Smallcap Index | — | — | -1.97% |
📌 Key highlight: Selling was broad-based, hitting large-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps alike.
Why Indian Share Market Is Going Down Today?
Market experts attribute the fall to five powerful and interconnected triggers, both global and domestic.
1️⃣ Russia Sanctions Act: The Biggest Shock
The Russia Sanctions Act, recently approved by US President Donald Trump, has emerged as a major market disruptor.
What Is the Concern?
- The Act allows tariffs up to 500% on countries importing Russian crude oil
- India is a major buyer of discounted Russian oil
- Fear of export retaliation and trade disruption
Market Impact:
- Heavy selling in oil & gas, metals, and PSU stocks
- Sharp correction in energy-heavy indices
📉 Markets are pre-emptively pricing in worst-case scenarios.
2️⃣ FIIs Selling Relentlessly
One of the clearest answers to why Indian share market is going down lies in sustained foreign outflows.
Latest FII Data:
- ₹3,367 crore sold in a single session
- Net sellers since July 2025
- Dollar strength pulling capital back to US assets
Why This Hurts:
- FIIs dominate large-cap liquidity
- Their selling forces DIIs to absorb pressure
- Creates sharp intraday volatility
📊 Historically, multi-session FII selling often leads to 5–8% corrections.
3️⃣ Fall in Commodity Prices Hits Metal Stocks
Commodity markets witnessed a sharp pullback, triggering heavy selling in metal and mining stocks.
Affected Stocks:
- NMDC
- Hindustan Zinc
- NALCO
- MOIL
- Jindal Steel
Reason:
- Weak global demand outlook
- Falling base metal prices
- Profit booking after earlier rallies
📉 Result: Metal index among the worst performers of the session.
4️⃣ Renewed Fear of Global Trade War
The Russia Sanctions Act has reignited fears of a fresh global trade war.
What’s Fueling Anxiety?
- Threats of tariffs on China, India, and Brazil
- Stalled US–India trade negotiations
- Unpredictable Trump policy signals
📌 Trade uncertainty directly impacts:
- IT exports
- Manufacturing
- Infrastructure capex outlook
5️⃣ Escalating Geopolitical Tensions
Global markets are on edge due to rising geopolitical risks.
Key Developments:
- US military action in Venezuela
- Fears of China-Taiwan escalation
- Growing instability in energy-producing regions
📉 Markets hate uncertainty — and geopolitics adds the highest premium to fear.
🌍 Global Market Performance Snapshot
| Market | Change |
|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | -1.59% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | -1.17% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | -0.15% |
| CAC 40 (France) | -0.15% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | -0.20% |
| KOSPI (Korea) | +0.10% |
📌 Weak global cues amplified domestic selling pressure.
Sector-Wise Damage Report –
Worst Hit Sectors:
- Power & Energy
- Metals
- Oil & Gas
- PSU Stocks
- Infrastructure
- IT
Relatively Resilient:
- FMCG
- Select private banks
- Healthcare
📊 Technical Breakdown: What Charts Are Saying
Nifty 50 Technical Levels:
| Level | Zone |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 26,000–26,200 |
| Immediate Support | 25,900 |
| Next Support | 25,800–25,700 |
| Extreme Support | 25,000 |
📉 Nifty has broken:
- 20-day EMA
- Consolidation range
- Short-term trend support
Sensex Technical View:
- Immediate support: 84,000
- Next downside: 83,700
- Major resistance: 85,000
Bank Nifty Outlook:
| Level | Status |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 60,000–60,100 |
| Support | 59,600 |
| Breakdown Risk | Below 59,500 |
📌 Short-term bias remains bearish to range-bound.
Is This a Crash or a Healthy Correction?
Comparison with Past Market Falls
| Factor | 2020 Crash | 2022 Fall | 2026 Correction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trigger | Pandemic | Rate hikes | Trade & geopolitics |
| Economic Health | Weak | Recovering | Strong |
| Liquidity Crisis | Yes | No | No |
| Nature | Crash | Correction | Correction |
📌 Conclusion: This is a valuation-led correction, not a structural crash.
Monday Market Prediction: What to Expect Next?
Now to the most searched question — Monday market prediction.
🔮 Scenario 1: Mild Recovery (Bullish Case)
- If US Supreme Court hints against tariffs
- Crude prices cool off
- Global markets stabilize
📈 Nifty could attempt a bounce toward 26,000
🔮 Scenario 2: Range-Bound Trade (Base Case)
- Continued uncertainty
- Low volumes
- Stock-specific action
📊 Nifty may trade between 25,700–26,000
🔮 Scenario 3: Further Breakdown (Bearish Case)
- Negative global cues
- Tariff escalation headlines
- Rupee weakness
📉 Nifty could slide toward 25,500–25,400
📉 Text-Based Trend Graph (Illustrative)
Nifty Trend (Jan 2–Jan 9)
26050 ──┐
└── 25980
└── 25876
└── 25683
📌 Pattern: Lower highs → Lower lows
What Should Investors Do Now?
✅ Long-Term Investors:
- Accumulate quality stocks in phases
- Focus on earnings visibility
- Avoid leveraged bets
⚠️ Short-Term Traders:
- Trade with strict stop-loss
- Avoid overnight positions
- Watch global news closely
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
❓ Why Indian share market is going down continuously?
Due to FII selling, Russia Sanctions Act fears, geopolitical tension, trade war uncertainty, and technical breakdowns.
❓ Is this a good time to invest?
For long-term investors, staggered buying in fundamentally strong stocks may be considered.
❓ What is the Monday market prediction?
Markets may remain volatile with a range of 25,700–26,000 on Nifty unless fresh global triggers emerge.
❓ Can markets recover quickly?
Yes, any positive US tariff verdict or easing geopolitical tension could trigger a sharp relief rally.
Final Verdict:
The answer to why Indian share market is going down lies in a perfect storm of global trade fears, foreign fund outflows, geopolitical tension, and technical breakdowns — not a collapse of India’s economic fundamentals.
As for the Monday market prediction, volatility is here to stay, but panic selling may gradually give way to selective buying once clarity emerges.
📌 Corrections are temporary. Discipline is permanent.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This article is for educational purposes only. Stock market investments are subject to market risk. Consult a certified financial advisor before investing.
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